I’m not going to bury the lead on this one. I have one lock this week and I love it. This is my favorite play of the last few weeks.
Jets @ Dolphins +3
This one will be easy. The Dolphins are coming home off a short week. Their early start in their last game and their last two games being close has changed the public perception of them a little bit. Meanwhile the Jets have had the exact opposite happen. Not only were they blown out by the Patriots on prime time but they have had issues coming from their locker room in the news as well. I think all of that goes out the window this week and we see a motivated Jets team ready to beat an opponent they are much better than. This is also Adam Gase’s first game coming back to Miami after being let go in the off-season. The Jets offense has not been efficient this year but they have faced the 2nd hardest schedule of opposing defenses. This week they face the NFLs least efficient defense in the Dolphins. On the other side the Dolphins offense ranks just one spot ahead of the Jets offense despite facing a slightly easier schedule. They face a Jets defense that is ranked 11th and has faced the 12th hardest schedule of offenses. So the advantage here is all Jets. The Dolphins don’t have a huge home field advantage. That combined with them playing on the short week has me loving the Jets in a bounce back spot this year. The Jets should cruise to a big win this week. This one is a lock for me.
The only other bet I have this week is a Seahawks ML + Jets ML parlay that pays out around +110.
Jets -3 (5-10 units)