This board is very sharp today. I feel like they are inviting me to take every underdog but they all feel like a trap. The type of bet that looks good before the game, then the team starts getting smoked and you realize how obvious it was why they’re underdogs. The board keeps getting sharper and the weeks get tougher.
Seahawks @ Falcons +8
So the Falcons have been disappointing all year. They look unprepared constantly which is no surprise considering their coaching. I don’t understand why they would think it was a good idea to have Dirk Koetter be the offensive coordinator. Then again their head coach is supposed to be a defensive minded coach but the Falcons have the 4th least efficient defense in the league. Now this week they are playing without Matt Ryan and have Matt Schaub replacing him. I know the Seahawks have a lot of travel here and they are a west coast team playing in an early time slot. They are 2-0 in these situations this year with wins in Pittsburgh and Cleveland. I see them bouncing back with a big win in Atlanta here. I think the familiarity between Pete Carroll and Dan Quinn benefits Carroll more than Quinn. Simply because Dan Quinn has proven to be incompetent as a head coach. This may be the week that gets him fired.
Broncos @ Colts -5.5
The Broncos were so close to being a contender for the AFC west. Coming off a two game win streak they got the Chiefs at home and Pat Mahomes went down early but they couldn’t get the job done. This is a Broncos team that usually plays much better at home too and now they are traveling to Indy to play in the early time slot. This is only their second game in this slot, their first being a loss in Green Bay. I don’t think this game will go well for them either. The Colts are coming off a bye and have been playing very well this year. I like the Colts and I think this game will go under as well.
Raiders @ Texans -6.5
To make this short and sweet, I don’t think the Texans should be 6.5 point favorites against anybody. Then when you look into the coaching matchup, we have Jon Gruden against Bill O’Brien and I think Gruden has the advantage here. He is very good with preparation and play calling and that will be a huge advantage against the Texans defesne that likes to use a lot of soft zone. This is also the end of a brutal 5 game stretch for the Raiders playing non-home games. I think the Raiders cover this number. This is my most confident pick of the day.
Seahakws -8 (2 units)
Colts -5.5 (2 units)
Colts Broncos under 41.5 (1 unit)
Raiders +6.5 (4 units)