My Week 1 Picks for 1pm Games

Falcons @ Vikings -3.5
The line has come down from 4 to 3.5 this morning. My gut feeling was to go with the Falcons also but I’m being scared away now that the majority of bets are on the Falcons. I think it is obvious to everyone now how much better the Falcons are when playing indoors. A lot of experts are expecting a bounce back season for the Falcons who only 4 games being played outdoors this season. This also has me leaning towards the over. I will probably go for the Vikings here too. I don’t think they will be good this year but I think they will open up the year on a good note.

Ravens @ Dolphins +7.5
Catching 7.5 at home is disrespectful. Catching 7.5 at home against a Ravens team who can’t score is downright despicable. The Dolphins have a history of doing well at home in the early season games. Due to the new CBA players are not getting completely in shape until about week 3-4. This is a huge advantage for teams like the Dolphins who practice in extreme heat and humidity. I get that the Dolphins look like they are tanking and don’t have any notable talent on offense. But I really like them here. They have a ton of speed on offense with Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson coming back healthy. Their secondary is still top tier and again they will have the weather on their side. This may actually be my lock of the week.

Bills @ Jets -3
I hate this game. My gut feeling is leaning towards the Bills but the price on +3 is at -135 now. Gun to my head I would take the Bills but I’m not going to be betting this game.

Chiefs @ Jaguars +4
This game is interesting. The Jaguars are expected to improve with their defense and with Blake Bortles now at QB. I’m still leaning towards the Chiefs. I don’t think the Jaguars will be able to keep up once the Chiefs offense starts to get going.

Rams @ Panthers +2
I am very low on the Panthers this year. There were rumors about Cam Newton missing the entire year due to the shoulder injury he suffered last year. He is playing and claiming he is healthy but I’m not sure if he is going to be playing the same way he has throughout his career. What has made Cam such an efficient QB is his ability to run out of the read option. It seems like that has also been at his detriment with the aforementioned injury. I’m not sure if Cam will be the same quarterback with the threat of the run gone. He also had the ankle injury in pre-season. I think this will be a huge issue for the Panthers offense this year. Everyone is also expecting major regression from the Rams this year also. I’m sure they will but I don’t think I see it here. I’m taking the Rams. This is another lock for me.

Titans @ Browns -6
I’m not going to touch the Browns as a 6 point favorite yet. This line is way too high for me to even touch this game. Obviously I would lean Titans because of the number but I won’t be touching this game.

Redskins @ Eagles -10
This game is gross. Everyone is putting championship expectations on the Eagles and worst team in the league expectations on the Redskins. I’m not touching this game at all. Most of the money is also on the under 44 but I can see it as a push with the Eagles winning 34-10. So I guess that makes my pick Eagles -10? Again I’m not taking this game this is just a lean.

The Picks:
Vikings -3.5
Falcons Vikings over 47
Dolphins +7.5 LOCK
Bills +3
Chiefs -4
Rams -2 LOCK
Titans +6
Eagles -10

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