Betting on Jaguars @ Titans

Titans -5 O/U 37.5

 

When the NFL put this game back on Thursday night this year I think they expected a matchup of two teams fighting for their division. Unfortunately for the Jaguars that no longer seems like a possibility. The Titans are still fighting for their playoff lives and will look to sweep their season series with the Jaguars for the second straight year. I don’t think there is any question the Titans will win this game. Forgive me for not being sold on the Jaguars 6-0 win over the Colts with Cody Kessler. The Titans do seem a bit overvalued though. The Jaguars are ranked 17th in team efficiency (28th offense, 5th defense, 5th ST) compared to the Titans at 25th (26th offense, 20th defense, 13th ST). By those numbers the line certainly feels inflated. The line has a lot to do with home field advantage as home teams are 3-12 on Thursday games this year. Also I’m sure bookmakers are not sold on Cody Kessler either.

 

This year the Titans offensive numbers have been skewed by Marcus Mariota’s injury. In the first game against the Jaguars, Mariota could not grip a football but the Titans were still able to prevail with a 9-6 victory. Mariota would not have even played that game but an injury to Blaine Gabbert forced him into action. As the weeks have gone on Mariota’s numbers have improved along with his health. Being at home will be a huge advantage for the Titans as temperatures at kickoff are reported to be in the 20s. I envision the game going like this; The Titans will take an early lead forcing the Jaguars offense to start throwing more aggressively. This will force Cody Kessler into mistakes that lead to turnovers which will lead to defensive touchdowns. When the Titans get the ball they will move downfield utilizing Jonnu Smith in the middle of the field. This will be the night the Jaguars finally get put out of their misery. The Titans have been their bully in recent years and I see that continuing here. Once the game comes down to Cody Kessler making plays it will be all over. I like the Titans and the over tonight.

 

The Picks:

Titans -5

Over 37

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