Heat -3 O/U 207
This line is all public perception to me. The Magic have been consistent under-achievers in recent years. The combination of their continued struggles, lack of a superstar and being in Orlando has kept them out of the public’s eye. The Magic have had the Heat’s number recently. The Magic opened their season the last two years with wins over the Heat. Tonight the Heat are without starting point guard Goran Dragic. This will make a huge difference as he is the primary ball handler in the Heat’s offense. I noticed as I am writing this that tip-off is coming soon so I will try to make the rest short and sweet.
The Magic are better than the Heat at defensive efficiency. They average more assists and less turnovers while playing at a slower pace. The Heat have not been a good team this year. There is no reason for them to be favored in this game other than public perception. I am taking the Magic using the betting strategy I outlined here.