The Cavaliers have not played well so far this year. They are way off from Tristan Thompson’s pre-season claims of being the team to beat in the East. They are ranked 26th in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. All while playing at the 3rd slowest pace. Despite the Celtics being without Al Horford and Jaylen Brown the Cavs are still 13 point underdogs. The Celtics have been very inconsistent but are coming off a big win in New Orleans and the Cavs are coming off a big home loss. The most recent games will always effect the market but I expect the Celtics to get back on track here. Boston is a blue collar city and on Friday nights the fans in Boston tend to get a bit looser and more rowdy giving the Celtics a better home court advantage. They have only played one Friday night home game this year and it was a win over the East leading Raptors. I expect the Celtics to cover here but I want to tell you a little bit about the way I actually bet the NBA.
I will always give a pick at the end of a post but with the NBA being so volatile I do not just take that one pick. When I bet a team I take them 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter, 1st half and full game. The reason I do this is because usually a team that covers the full game will cover at least 3 of the other 4 wagers. At halftime I will assess where I am at in a game and if I am 3-0 or 2-1 I will bet the other team for the 2nd half. This will allow you to finish at least 4-2 or at the very least split even for the full game. The goal is to finish the game 4-2. There are no professional bettors or algorithms that pick games perfectly 100% of the time. If you are picking against the spread and after you factor in the juice, you need to hit 57% of your bets to be profitable. If you go 4-2 on a game you are at 66% thus turning a profit. There are not any nights where I go undefeated but I have found it a better way to build a bankroll. An example of that is the other night with my Brooklyn Nets pick. My pick was for them to cover the spread of 3.5 which they did not however they were covering the entire game and with 2:37 remaining the Jazz went on a run to win and cover. I ended up going 5-1 on that game because Brooklyn was +1.5 for the first quarter and plus 1 for the 2nd and 3rd quarter, then plus 2 on the first half. The game started with Brooklyn losing the first by 1, tying the 2nd and then going into the half down by 1, thus winning all 3 of my bets to start. From there I took Utah 2nd half to offset any losses from either Brooklyn 3rd quarter or game. Brooklyn ended up winning the 3rd quarter but then losing the 4th quarter and the game and did not cover. That game was still a success for me as I was able to go 5-1 (83%) on my bets involving that game.
Now why does this all matter? This all started when I had a few bets with a large spread similar to the Celtics -13 tonight. These teams would go up 20+ really quick then cruise the rest of the way and would end up letting the other team back in it, or do something like give up a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win by 12 rather than 15. After those losses I had felt like I just wasted so much time, and energy into the research and then the emotional roller coaster of watching a game that turned out to be a loss. I decided from there I would increase my chances of winning by betting every quarter and the half then betting the other was 2nd half. It proved to be very profitable. It is the sole reason my bookie cut me off and now I have to have a real job now and write about betting on the internet on the side instead of just surfing and eating eating pizza and then betting NBA all night like I used to. For two years I lived and breathed the NBA with the NFL on the side and would make enough money to take the summer off. When my bookie realized it was no longer profitable to have me as a customer he promptly cut me off which forced me back into the machine of the real world. People ask me why I never started betting legally the truth is I never had enough extra money to do so. With my old bookie I was lucky enough to have a substantial bankroll every week which allowed me to bet basically everything my heart desired which was very profitable for me. I wasn’t making obscene amounts of money, only around $60-70k per year. That was really all I needed though. That allowed me to do whatever I wanted which was basically surfing and eating pizza. That is still all I really want to do.
Anyways this long story is basically to tell you that my pick is not just the Celtics. It is to take the Celtics 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 1H and game, then once we go 3-0 or 2-1 take the Cavs 2nd half.
Celtics -7.5 1H
Celtics -4.5 1Q
Celtics -3 2Q
Celtics -4 3Q