Betting on Warriors @ Raptors

Raptors -9 O/U 225.5

 

I could not believe my eyes when I saw the spread to this game. The Warriors are getting 9 points? I can not remember the last time the Warriors were an underdog by this much. I know they are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. They are still the NBAs best offensive team and are better than Toronto in every statistic except for defensive efficiency. I will concede that the Raptors have looked great this year and on their current six game winning streak. But 9 points is an extreme over reaction. We’re talking about the Warriors. Even without Curry and Green, they can have an off night and still win this game. I know the Raptors are at home but they are overpriced.

 

When you look at the Raptors current six game win streak, five of those games come against teams that have losing records. Their most recent win came at Memphis where they won 122-114 and covered as 5.5 point favorites. They are 5-1 against the spread on their six game win streak and have covered with relative ease. This is another reason why the line is so high for this game. This is not to say the Raptors are not a very good team. They are good, especially at home and winning games against bad teams is what good teams do. This is not a bad team they are playing tonight though. It is important to remember that a bookmaker’s job is not always to predict the winner or outcome of the game but to create even action on both sides. With the help of the media’s recent attention to the Raptors, this line will do just that. The Warriors recent struggles and dysfunction are fresh on people’s minds as well.

 

This one is a no-brainer to me. It is also well known that the Warriors are very active on social media. Not that they need any extra motivation as professional athletes but I am sure that word has circulated about them being 9 point underdogs. Throughout the recent years of the Warriors’ dominance, it has always been tricky to pick them since the line would always be so high. They could be 14.5 point favorites, have one dominant quarter and cruise to a 13 point victory. Or they could set a record for 3 pointers made in a quarter and win by 30. To put it plainly, betting on the Warriors is not very profitable. They’re only 9-13 against the spread on the year. They were favored for most of those games though. There is no way I could bet against the Warriors as 9 point underdogs and feel good about it. This is a team that consistently erases 20 point leads in minutes. Even without Steph and Draymond, the pick is the Warriors getting points.

The Pick:

Golden State Warriors +9

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