Saints -8 O/U 52.5
I thought last week would be the week the Saints finally don’t cover. I was wrong and they covered easily. Now they are 8 point favorites on the road and even at that, they are very tempting. The Saints are so good this year. The crazy thing is everybody knows how to beat them, they just can not do it. The key to beating the Saints will always be to pressure Drew Brees, especially up the middle. It just has not been done this year by anybody. The Saints have the leagues best offensive line according to statistics. Drew Brees has only been sacked twice in the last six games. The Cowboys defensive line has done pretty well this year and has 3 sacks in each of the last two games. They will need to get to Drew Brees to have any chance in this game. Otherwise there is no way I see the Cowboys keeping up here.
The Cowboys offense completely revolves around their running game. When the Cowboys are able to run the ball well they are hard to stop. They have had a pretty easy go of things so far facing the 6th easiest schedule of opposing defenses. This week they face a tough challenge against the Saints defense ranked 3rd against the run. The Saints run defense has been astounding this year. Combined with the Saints high powered offense they have made all of their opponents one dimensional. Their pass defense has also improved as the year has gone along. i can’t see the Cowboys offense having a lot of success here. In the games where Ezekiel Elliot has rushed for less than 100 yards the Cowboys are 1-4. It is going to be tough for Ezekiel Elliot to have that kind of success tonight.
There is really nothing I can say about the Saints offense that has not already been said. They have faced the 2nd easiest schedule of opposing defenses but that is skewed with 2 games against the Falcons and the insane production they have put up against defenses. The Cowboys defense has been good this year and have out-performed their expectations. They have yet to face an offense like the Saints though. Last week I bet against the Saints thinking they would allow the backdoor cover. Despite them being on the road, I am not going to be hoping for a backdoor cover again. Instead I will be hoping the Saints do not allow the backdoor cover.