Betting on Falcons @ Saints

The Saints have been playing very well this year including blowing out their last two opponents. They are on such a roll that they find themselves 13 point favorites against a division rival. The Falcons have had their struggles as well, including losing their last two games to the Browns and Cowboys. I have said from the beginning of the year that the Falcons were overrated and would struggle this year. However, I think 13 points is a bit inflated due to the Saints recent success.


The Saints come into this game winners of nine straight games, covering the spread in the last eight. This is the largest spread they have had since their season opening game against the Bucs where they were 10 point favorites. They lost that game in a shootout and it was the only game they lost. I do not see them losing here to the Falcons but I see them being challenged. The Saints defense is ranked 24th in overall efficiency (28th passing, 3rd rushing) and have benefited from playing against offenses that do not throw the ball well. In their last game against the Falcons and in their game against the Rams, teams ranked 7th and 4th in passing offense, they allowed 37 and 35 points. I expect this game to be a shootout as well. I do not expect the Falcons to be outscored by two touchdowns. I think the Falcons keep it close and cover the spread.


The pick:

Atlanta Falcons +13

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