NFL Thanksgiving Betting Preview

Washington @ Dallas Cowboys -7.5 O/U 40.5

I think this line is an overreaction to a couple things. First off Alex Smith got hurt last week which thrust Colt McCoy into the starting QB position for the Cowboys. The other thing is the Cowboys playing well recently and winning their last two games. The change to Colt McCoy does not seem like a downgrade at all in my opinion. Alex Smith can barely get the ball down the field. Remember when Alex Smith went almost 2 straight seasons without throwing a TD to his wide receivers? It’s not like Washington has this great offense. They are ranked 23rd in overall efficiency (25th passing, 13th rushing). Their success has been predicated on their running game. The Cowboys rushing defense is ranked 7th so Washington may have a tough game. Still I think they should be able to cover this number.

 

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints -13 O/U 60.5

It may be tough for the Saints to stop the Falcons offense here. It feels like it’s been so long since their first contest where Drew Brees spun off two defenders into the end zone to tie the game late. This was the first of the 8 straight games the Saints have covered up to this point. The Saints are going to have a hard time covering this number. It is definitely a little bit inflated due to the Saints recent success blowing out the Eagles and Bengals. The thing about those teams though is their passing offense is ranked 18th and 22nd (Bengals also had no AJ Green). The Saints have trouble against teams that can move the ball through the air, as we have seen from the first Saints Falcons game, their opening game against the Bucs and their game against the Rams where they allowed 48,37 and 35 points. Those are their 3 highest totals of the year. I expect the Falcons to be able to move the ball here and get within this number. I see this being a backdoor cover situation where the Saints will probably have the win in hand.

 

No line out yet for Bears Lions. Will update this as soon as it is.

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