This game is expected to be a close battle between these two teams fighting for the NFC North. Neither team has any wins against really good teams and both teams are coming off blowouts against the Lions. I have said all year that I do not think the Vikings are good and that still holds true here. The Bears are the pick for me in this game and it should be easy.
The Vikings have been known for their defense over the years and after facing the 5th easiest schedule of opposing offenses they find themselves ranked 7th in overall defensive efficiency (10th passing, 4th rushing). Although they are ranked high, this has more to do with the level of competition they have played. The Vikings are 0-2-1 when facing teams ranked in the top 10 for offensive efficiency. These games were against the Packers, Rams and Saints and they allowed 29, 38 and 30 points. This week they face the Bears who are ranked right at number 10 (7th passing 9th rushing). I expect the Bears to move the ball well on the ground and using play action to set up their passing game. I do not trust this Vikings defense against good offenses and I expect the Bears to score a lot here.
The Bears defense is ranked number one after facing the 2nd easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Despite playing an easier schedule, you can tell by their ranking they are vastly better than the Vikings defense. I expect the Bears defense to smother the Vikings offense tonight. The Vikings offense is set up to play well in a dome and this game will be outdoors on natural grass. The key to success for the Vikings will be to keep the pressure off Kirk Cousins and I don’t think they can do it. Right now is also the perfect spot to remind everyone that Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in turnovers since he became a starting QB. I expect him to turn the ball over at least twice tonight as the Vikings struggle to move the ball both in the air and on the ground. The Vikings offensive line has not been great and they face the NFL’s best pass rusher, Khalil Mack tonight. The Vikings may score some points late in garbage time but other than that I see the Bears defense dominating tonight.
Another think to keep in mind; last month was the worst month for Vegas bookmakers. Vegas got a lot of money back last week. Now today relies on the Bears winning. Vegas knows what they are doing with this line, enticing people to take the Vikings. This means the Bears should blow them out and help Vegas get their money back. Don’t be a sucker. The Bears are the winning pick.