NFL Week 11 Betting Preview

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks -3 O/U 49

This game is very intriguing to me. Looking at the numbers the line makes sense. The Seahawks are 8th in overall efficiency (11th offense, 10th defense, 11th special teams) and the Packers are 10th (8th offense, 14th defense, 24th ST). Also the Seahawks play better at home which factors into this line. I’m still not yet sold on the Seahawks. They have yet to beat a good team this year. The same can be said about the Packers as well. The only win either of these teams has over a team that currently has a winning record was the Packers week 1 victory over the Bears. With all that being said I am leaning towards the Packers in this spot. I think the Packers 2nd ranked rushing offense will be able to take advantage of the Seahawks 20th ranked rushing defense. In the Seahawks last two games they allowed Melvin Gordon to gain 113 yards on 16 carries and then allowed Todd Gurley to get 120 yards on 16 carries. Aaron Jones is coming off the biggest game in his career. I expect him to have another big game here in Seattle and I expect Green Bay to get the outright win.

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons -3 O/U 48.5

This is another very interesting game. This is a rematch of last year’s game that got Adrian Clayborn PAID when he had 6 sacks for the Falcons. He is gone now but the Falcons are still favored, even though they are coming off losing to the Browns. The Cowboys are coming off a win over the former Super Bowl champion Eagles, which doesn’t seem like a big deal anymore. Going into week 11 these teams are side by side in the efficiency rankings. The Falcons are ranked 22nd (6th offense, 32nd defense, 13th ST) and the Cowboys are ranked 23rd (26 off, 19th def, 22 ST). Anything could happen in this matchup and it would not surprise me. The Falcons who play considerably better at home might just go off and score a bunch of points. Or their defense could allow Ezekiel Elliot to run for 250 yards and 3 TDs. I will probably stay away from this game but I’m leaning towards the Cowboys getting the outright win.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ NY Giants -1.5 O/U 52

The Giants certainly looked ‘back’ on Monday night. Eli Manning threw for 3 TDs and the Giants got a win with a late touchdown. I’m not sure I’m buying the Giants being ‘back’ just yet. Looking at their last win, they were out-gained in total yards 374-277 and time of possession 34:14-25:46. They also benefited from the 49ers turning the ball over twice and being penalized 10 times. Now they come home off a short week and a cross country trip to play the Buccaneers. The Bucs have been a mess this year. Things started good with them winning their first two games and Ryan Fitzpatrick wearing DeSean Jackson’s clothes. They have now only won 1 of their last 7 games and find themselves on a 3 game losing streak. Neither one of these teams has been very good this season but this line goes along with their efficiency numbers with the Giants ranked 24th (21 off, 28 def, 14 ST) and the Bucs ranked 28th (15 off, 31 def, 29 ST). The Bucs are also coming off being the first team in NFL history to gain over 500 yards and only get 3 points. Despite their struggles this year I’m leaning towards the Giants.

 

Carolina Panthers -4 @ Detroit Lions O/U 51

The Panthers dropped from 3rd to 12th in overall efficiency (7 off, 4 def, 9 ST) after getting smoked by the Steelers 52-21 last Thursday night. Despite that they still may be undervalued here against the Lions ranked 29th in overall efficiency (19th off, 30th def, 23 ST). Not only have the Lions not been very good this year, they are dealing with a bunch of injuries this week and just put TJ Lang on IR. That is a huge loss for their offensive line that has been struggling recently, giving up 16 sacks in their last 2 games. I’m not sure how the Lions can keep this game close. Their offense has been very inconsistent moving the ball on the ground and through the air. They also may be without Marvin Jones this week which will make those struggles worse. On the other side, I’m not sure how the Lions will be able to stop the Panthers running game. I think the Panthers get back on track here and cover this number.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Indianappolis Colts -2 O/U 49

I see what is going on here with this line. Let me sidetrack you and tell you a story from a couple years ago. When Tom Brady was suspended for the first four games of the season, that fucked bookmakers up for the rest of the year. The Patriots went on to go 10-1 against the spread for the rest of the year. They did it easily too. The reason for this was the efficiency metrics could never catch up to how much better the Patriots were with Tom Brady. The first four games had essentially muddied the Patriots numbers to make them not look as dominant as they had been. Why do I bring this up you ask? The Titans are currently ranked 16th in overall efficiency (24 off, 12 def, 7 ST) but Marcus Mariota has really only been completely healthy for the past two weeks. So the Titans now have 7 games with muddied numbers where Mariota was injured or they had Blaine Gabbert playing. They also have that weird 8 hour game to start the season in their stats. The Colts are ranked one spot higher in overall efficiency at 15th (14 off, 22 def, 10 ST). The Titans are going to cover here easy and they’ll be undervalued a lot for the rest of the year.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 47

The Steelers have looked great on their 5 game win streak, capped off with their 52-21 win last Thursday over the Panthers. Now they look to get revenge against a team that beat them twice last year. The Jaguars did not only beat the Steelers they beat them handedly in the regular season and playoffs. The Steelers jumped 6 spots in overall efficiency from 11th to 5th (5 off, 15 def, 20 ST) after their big win. The Jaguars have struggled this year and find themselves ranked 17th in overall efficiency. (28 off, 9 def,6 ST). The numbers make no sense for this to happen but I like the Jaguars here. At least to cover. This will be Leonard Fournette’s second game back and the defense will be bolstered by the return of AJ Bouye. Ben Roethlisberger also struggles on the road historically. I see that happening here and I see the Jaguars covering if not winning outright.

 

Houston Texans -3 @ Washington O/U 42.5

Washington got a little lucky last week when the Bucs gained over 500 yards but only got 3 points. Their defense had a lot to do with that getting 4 turnovers, 2 of which occurred in the red zone and another on their 28 yard line. I’m not yet sold on Washington. Their offense has not been good and they have a bunch of injuries to their offensive line. I don’t think they will fare well this week against the Texans 3rd ranked defense. On the other side the Texans should be able to move the ball on Washington’s 21st ranked defense. When Washington played the Saints I pointed out that in their wins they have been able to run the ball well. Besides last week’s game in Tampa that still rings true. The Texans defense is ranked number 1 in rushing defense. I don’t see Washington having any success running and I see the Texans covering this one easily.

 

Denver Broncos @ LA Chargers -7 O/U 46.5

Although this game is being played in LA, the Broncos will have the home field advantage. Even when they played in San Diego these games would be littered with Broncos fans. The move to LA has essentially made the Chargers the road team in every game and this will be no different. At least they won’t have to deal with the altitude of Denver. Not all is bad for the Chargers though, Joey Bosa has returned to practice. He will be a welcome addition to a defense currently ranked 11th in overall efficiency. The Chargers offense is ranked 3rd in overall efficiency (2nd passing, 6th rushing) and will be looking to take advantage of the Broncos 18th ranked rushing defense. Other than their one win in Arizona the Broncos have looked bad on the road and I think that continues here. The altitude in Denver helps them a lot. I don’t think they will be able to keep up with the Chargers. It is a big number but I think the Chargers can cover here.

 

Oakland Raiders @ Arizona Cardinals -5 O/U 41

Puke emoji. The two worst teams in overall efficiency face off in this clunker. The word, ‘dysfunctional’ can not even begin to describe the dysfunction in the Raiders locker room.  The Cardinals are ranked last in overall efficiency, one spot below the Raiders and are still 5 point favorites. For what it’s worth the two teams are projected to switch places by the end of the year.  At the beginning of the season I said the Raiders would suck and I was right about that (one more win to cash under 8 wins tickets). I also thought the Cardinals would be good and I was way off. At this point I can not in good conscience put money on the Raiders. They have been terrible and I have been making money betting against them all year. I also can’t lay 5 points with the Cardinals. They probably cover easily but I will stay away.

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints -9 O/U 56

I would like to use this time to once again complain about the NFL scheduling only 3 games in the late afternoon compared to 7 in the early afternoon slot. Not only do they give us far fewer games, the games always suck! The witching hour for the early games is so much more exciting to watch than the late games. Not to mention Red Zone channel is always stuck watching some terrible game for extended periods of time while the other 2 games are on commercial break. It’s not Hanson’s fault it’s Goodell’s. Anyways back to this game. The Eagles suck this year. I said they would not make the playoffs and that is looking like it is coming to fruition. Jason Kelce is telling the media that the Eagles are not holding themselves accountable with their Super Bowl hangover and are missing LaGarrette Blount. They may be the most complacent team coming off a championship in recent history. I predicted all of these things and it is wonderful to watch. On top of all of their struggles this year they lost their top cornerback Ronald Darby to a season ending injury. Just in time to face the Saints number 4 ranked offense. I’m not sure how anyone could be on the Eagles here. They don’t really do anything well. If it were not for Stefon Diggs, the Eagles would have probably lost to the Saints in the playoffs last year. Remember when the Eagles beat the Giants and they were saying they were ‘back’? Well they are not and they have not looked particularly good besides in that one game.

 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears -3 O/U 45

A perfect matchup to remind people that since he has become a starting QB, nobody has tuned the ball over more than Kirk Cousins. This week he faces the team that has forced the most turnovers this year. I have said all year that the Vikings would be overrated this year and they are here again. Their defense is completely overrated after getting 10 sacks in their last game. When they face good teams, the Vikings are not good. All of their wins have come against teams with losing records. They are going to have a lot of trouble moving the ball in the cold in Chicago against the Bears defense.  The Bears will make easy work of the overrated Vikings here.

 

Kansas City Chiefs @ LA Rams -3.5 O/U 63.5

This is going to be a great game. The Chiefs are ranked number 1 in overall efficiency and offense and the Rams are right behind them at number 2 in both categories. I am very intrigued by the coaching matchup. Theres old school Andy Reid who has trouble sometimes managing the clock and then the youngest NFL coach Sean McVay who has an assistant to remind him about his timeouts and the clock. The Rams had the plan to practice in Colorado for the week to try and simulate the conditions of Mexico City. The game is now being played in LA but the Rams are still practicing in Colorado. That may benefit them to be together for a week so they can be focused on the game but it is also a tough time for the families of players with wildfires going on through Southern California. This is a really tough game to pick and I will probably stay away and just enjoy what is hopefully a great game.

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