Who Is For Real?

This week the Ravens host a Saints team that is coming off a bye. The Ravens are favored by 2.5 and coming off a shutout in Tennessee getting 11 sacks in the process. Their defense is ranked 2nd overall, 5th against the pass and 3rd against the run. In their last 4 games they have allowed 14, 14, 9 and 0 points. The Ravens defense has been dominant thus far. They face their toughest test this week against a Saints offense that is ranked 4th in overall efficiency. The Saints defense on the other hand is not so great ranked 26th in overall efficiency, 30th against the pass and 1st against the run. The Ravens offense is ranked 13th overall coming against the 3rd toughest schedule of opposing defenses. The Saints are 8-1 in their previous 9 games coming off a bye but I think they struggle here. They do not play nearly as well on the road and outdoors and the Ravens play much better at home.

 

The Ravens offense has done just enough all year to win games for them. They are not flashy and have had their struggles so far albeit with a pretty tough schedule. The Saints on the other hand have had their way with a fairly easy schedule thus far. The Ravens will be the first team the Saints play with a winning record. The Saints offense has been great but their numbers are skewed by playing the 2nd easiest schedule of opposing defenses and they have played 4 of their 5 games in a dome. The Saints offense is in for a wake up call this weekend against a defense that will be able to slow them down. On the other hand the Ravens offense is facing the easiest defense they have faced all year. The Ravens passing attack has been hugely upgraded from last year with the additions of Willie Snead, John Brown and Michael Crabtree. I think they have a lot of success moving the ball through the air. I see former Saints receiver Willie Snead having a big game against his former team.

 

This line would probably be bigger if Drew Brees was not coming off a record setting prime time performance that is fresh in the public’s mind. Drew Brees had completions to 9 different receivers including himself. I was on the Saints in that game and everything went right for them from the outset. This week he faces a Ravens pass rush that will give him a lot more adversity. Plus being away from the dome is always really tough for the Saints. The Ravens have been dominant this year and that will continue on Sunday. Inflation is commonly a factor with the Saints and this week is no different. Getting this line at -2.5 right now is a bargain in my opinion.

 

The Pick:

Baltimore Ravens -2.5

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