Last week my easy under was the Jets and the Colts first half. I mentioned that the only thing that could ruin the easy under were turnovers. Well there were 5 turnovers that resulted in 23 points which all but ended chances at the first half under. I think this week’s pick is much better.
The Dolphins will be looking to stay undefeated at home this week hosting the Detroit Lions. The Dolphins will be looking for their second straight win with Brock Osweiler starting at quarterback. Lions coach Matt Patricia has been with the Patriots his entire career so he should be pretty familiar with the Dolphins. The current weather report for the game is expecting temperatures of 90 degrees which with the Miami humidity feels more like 95-100. The weather report is also saying there is a 50% chance of precipitation right around kickoff. When you factor the weather in with the coaches familiarity I think this one will start slow.
The Dolphins defense has been pretty good this year. They are currently ranked 9th down from 5th last week. and projected to finish 11th. The Lions on the other hand have the 3rd worst defense coming into this game. The Lions defense has given up a lot of big plays so far this year. Miami’s offense has thrived off big plays from their speedy receivers. Other than the big plays the Dolphins have struggled to move the ball consistently. Last week was no different with Albert Wilson scoring touchdowns of 43 and 75 yards. Big plays are hard to replicate and the Dolphins offense ranked 15th in efficiency has graded out the most inconsistent offense so far this year. The Lions offense is not far behind ranked 20th in overall efficiency and 3rd most inconsistent. Both of these offenses have a ton of talent but neither has been able to move the ball consistently.
Lions coach Matt Patricia was the defensive coordinator for the Patriots for the previous six seasons before becoming Lions head coach before this year. He had been on the Patriots staff since 2004 so he should be very familiar with the Dolphins and Adam Gase’s offense. Despite the Lions having a bad defense I think Patricia will have his team ready to face an old foe. In the 3 Dolphins home games so far they have scored 10, 7 and 7 points in the first half. In the Lions 2 away games they scored 10 points in each first half. Both of these teams have a tendency to start slow. Mainly because they have issues moving the ball. I think this game will be no different. I’m on the first half under 23.5.
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins 1H Under 23.5