This is my best bet of this week.
The Ravens travel to Tennessee this week to play the Titans in the late afternoon time slot. Despite public money coming in on the Titans the Ravens have remained 3 point favorites. The Ravens are 3-2 straight up and against the spread, covering in each of their wins. I expect that trend to continue this week with a win and cover against a Titans team that is a little bit overrated. No team is ever as bad as they were the week before but we can’t forget the Titans lost to the Bills last week. They out gained the Bills but not by much. For the most part the stats are split right down the middle. Neither team did particularly well. You can say the Titans defense did well but that was against the worst offensive team in the Bills. So far the Titans have faced the easiest schedule of opponent offenses. They are tied for giving up the 3rd fewest points per game but are ranked 12th in overall efficiency. The Ravens defense is ranked 4th in overall efficiency coming against the 3rd easiest opposing schedule of offenses. So although their competition has not been much better than the Titans they have performed much better. This is an advantage for the Ravens offense who face an easier task than they did last week, against the Browns defense ranked 2nd in overall efficiency.
The Ravens offense has looked inconsistent throughout their first five games. This has resulted in them being ranked 14th in overall efficiency, 10th passing and 24th rushing. This comes against the 7th hardest schedule of opposing defenses. The Titans have faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses and rank only 28th in overall efficiency. Their tough schedule continues this weekend against the Ravens 4th overall ranked defense. I expect the Titans offense to continue to struggle this week. The Ravens defense has been dominant all year and they come into this game fully healthy. Despite their early struggles the Ravens offense has very much improved since last year. The offseason acquisition of John Brown has been a huge help for Joe Flacco. I expect Brown to have a big game against the Titans as they have struggled covering the deep ball thus far.
One other thing the Titans play in London next week. For whatever reason, teams tend to not play as well the week before they go to London. When I look at the efficiency metrics of these two teams it is as if they perfectly match up for this game. For example the Titans offense playing a tough schedule of defenses, now face the 4th ranked defense. That tells me to expect to see the same quality of Titans offense that we have seen so far. All of the numbers in this game match up perfectly that way. It makes perfect sense for the Ravens to be favored here. It would probably be 6 points if the Ravens were not on the road. I like the Ravens to bounce back here against a struggling Titans team.
Baltimore Ravens -3