The Colts travel to New York to play the Jets this week. They are coming off a 38-24 loss in New England last Thursday night. The Jets are riding high after their 34-16 win against the Broncos. This week they face a much tougher team in the Colts. The Colts on the other hand will be playing a team closer to their level. The full total on this game is 45.5 but I do not want to go the full game total. The first half under is 22.5 and that is what I am looking at.
The Colts are not usually known for their defense and this year is no different. Other than in the Patriots game, their defense has performed better than their scores would indicate. Their week 1 34-23 loss to the Bengals ended with a Bengals defensive TD as the Colts were driving to win the game. In week 2 they held Washington to 9 points. In week 3 they held Philadelphia to 20 points in Philadelphia and had chances late to win the game. In week 4 they surrendered 14 points off 2 turnovers in a 37-34 loss to the Texans. Their defense to this point ranks 13th in overall efficiency, 17th against the pass and 13th against the run. I have spoken at length about the strength of the great Jets defense. The Jets were my best bet last week based primarily on the strength of their defense. They are ranked 6th in overall efficiency, 6th against the pass and 15th against the run. Although not heralded, the defense has been the strength of both of these teams. Their offenses on the other hand have not done well so far.
The Jets offense is ranked 29th in overall efficiency, 28th passing and 19th rushing. The Colts offense is not much better, ranked 25th in overall efficiency, 23rd passing and 26th rushing. What is worse for the Colts is they will be without their best offensive weapon TY Hilton. I see both of these teams struggling to move the ball early on. The Jets had 3 long touchdowns to start the game last week. Those long plays are hard to duplicate never mind getting three of them. The Jets may also be without Isaiah Crowell who was one of the ballcarriers on one of those long plays a 77 yard TD. The Colts come into this week in a better situation than the Broncos were last week. The Broncos were coming off a short week traveling across two time zones. The Colts have had extra time to rest and prepare for this game so they should do better to contain the Jets offense. I see this game starting slow as these teams start to feel each other out. I see a low scoring or scoreless first quarter. The only thing that is worrisome is that this pick is contingent on having no turnovers for touchdowns and both of these teams have offenses that are turnover prone. My gut feeling is that they will take care of the ball early. There will be plenty of punts as these teams fight for field position. I think the score going into half will be somewhere around 10-7.
Colts @ Jets UNDER 22.5 1H