This is my week 4 best bet.
The Broncos travel to New York on a short week after their home loss to the Chiefs. The Broncos were in control for most of that game before surrendering a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter. They have yet to cover in any of their games and have a 2-2 record. The Jets are coming off a loss to a much better team in the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jets did not play well offensively or defensively and were out-gained in total yard 503-178. The Jets looked terrific in their week 1 win against the Lions but have not looked good in their three straight losses since then. Week 1 was also the only game they covered as they come into this week at 1-3.
The Jets will be without Trumaine Johnson this week but it should not matter this week. The Broncos pass offense is ranked 25th and has not looked good at all this year. Case Keenum was brought in to be an upgrade at quarterback and he has not been that at all. Keenum had a great year last year with the Vikings in Pat Shurmur’s system but he has struggled so far this year in Denver. Last week against the 30th ranked Chiefs pass defense, Case Keenum failed to throw for a touchdown and threw for less than 300 yards for the third consecutive week. This brings his TD-INT ratio to 3-6. I can’t see him finding success here on the road on a short week against a 5th overall ranked Jets defense. If you look at the positives for the Broncos their rushing offense is ranked 2nd overall in efficiency. Other than the Ravens in week 3, the Broncos have not faced the best slate of defenses. The Broncos will also be without starting tackle Jared Veldheer this week. The Jets have only allowed 3.8 yards per carry on the ground so far this year. I think the Broncos offense will really struggle here against the Jets defense.
On the other side the Jets offense has looked very bad statistically through four games. The Jets rank 29th in passing efficiency and 27th in rushing efficiency and 30th in overall offensive efficiency. If there is a silver lining, they have faced the 4th toughest schedule of opposing offenses. They face off against a Denver defense ranked 17th in overall efficiency, 16th against the pass and 19th against the run. This is a case where their numbers are mediocre and they look mediocre on the field as well. I never thought the Broncos were going to be a good team this year but I thought they would win and cover their opening games because of their home field advantage with the altitude. They did not cover either game and probably should have lost the second. They are now on a two game losing streak where they have looked less than impressive. It is hard to make sense of why the Jets offense will look better here other than simply it is a good spot for them. The Broncos defense is very beatable and they are coming off a short week, traveling accross two time zones to play the early game. Sam Darnold has not looked good in his last three games, however he wrote a letter to Jets fans to let them know he is looking to improve. I think he does improve in this game and I think the Jets win big.
Right now a majority of bets are on the Broncos and that is why you see the line moving to Broncos -1 after they started +1. This is mostly public money. Vegas knows what they are doing and they are laying a trap for the general public. Most people will not look into this game in detail. People see what the media tells them which is one team that is supposed to be good and one team that stinks. Really that is unfair to the Jets who are much more heavily scrutinized since they are in a bigger market. The east coast bias of sports media has a lot to do with that too. The Jets should be very well prepared for this game and win easily. After that all of their fans can buy back in thinking they may still have a successful season. They probably won’t but they should have a good chance to cash tickets for anyone that bet over 6 wins in preseason. They play six more games against teams that do not have winning record (not counting the Patriots) and the Dolphins one more time as well. They could very well finish 8-8 which would be a step in the right direction. This week though they win and win big.