Week 4 Picks Recap

This was a tough week for me. I only picked 3 games and ended up 1-1-1. The Browns loss really sucked. I typed loss because it was basically a loss after I had already mentally put the game in the win column. Next thing I knew the first down was overturned and the rest is history. Anyway onto the picks:

 

Lions +3 WIN

The end of this game was easy. The Lions were up 1 and the Cowboys were setting up for a field goal that would end the game with the cover regardless of if the kick goes in or not. The Lions had the early lead in this game but surrendered way too many explosive plays on defense to have a successful game. Ezekiel Elliot had 240 yards of total offense including a 38 yard TD catch and a 34 yard catch late to set up the game winning field goal. His longest runs of the day were for 41 and 19 yards. If you’re adding up at home thats 132 of his 240 yards (55%) in just 4 plays. The Lions were also penalized 8 times with 4 of those penalties giving the Cowboys a first down. One of which turned a 9 yard sack into a first down where the Cowboys scored their first TD on the next play. The Lions offense definitely did its part to get the win but the defense can not say the same. They are now 0-2 on the road although they have covered the spread in both games. They host the Packers next week as 1 point underdogs. I have been on the Lions every week and despite being only 1-3 they are 3-1 against the spread. Good teams win but great teams cover, so what do you call the teams that don’t win and cover? Right now you call them the Lions.

 

Jets +7.5 LOSS

This one was ugly. The Jets never really had a shot at winning the game. They somehow had two chances late to secure the backdoor cover but could not move the ball on either drive which both resulted in 3 and outs. The Jaguars followed that up by taking their final drive to the end zone and ripped away the Jets teaser leg as well. The Jaguars defense played their part and the Jets struggled to move the ball all day. The Jets defense did what they could but were ultimately fatigued by their offenses inability to keep them off the field. The Jets will hope to do better against a more evenly matched opponent when they host the Broncos next week. The Jaguars defense faces their toughest test next week when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs who lead the league in offensive efficiency.

 

Browns +3 PUSH

To quote the great Vince Lombardi, “what the hell is going on out here?” The Browns scored 42 points and did literally everything they needed to do to win the game. Until it wasn’t enough. The refs overturned a late Browns first down that would have won the game for them. Instead they punted to the Raiders who drove down the field to tie the game with 30 seconds remaining. From there it seemed a foregone conclusion that the Raiders would win the game as you could see the overturned call deflated the Browns. This must be the first time in the history of the modern NFL that the refs were on the Raiders side and not against them. The Raiders travel to LA next week to play the Chargers in what will be an extended home game. We saw 49ers fans fill the Chargers stadium today and we will see the same with Raiders fans next week. The Chargers have not had a great home field advantage since moving to LA especially when playing other teams from California. The Browns also play a division rival hosting the Ravens who will be looking for their second straight AFC north road win after beating the Steelers tonight.

 

Teasers:

Lions +9 WIN

Texans +7.5 WIN

Jets +13.5 LOSS

Browns +9 WIN

Chiefs +1 PENDING

 

This week ATS: 1-1-1

This week teasers: 3-1

 

2018 ATS Record: 21-12-3

2018 Teasers: 18-4

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