Detroit Lions +9 (+3)
The Lions travel to Dallas coming off their first win to take on the Cowboys. Through three weeks the Cowboys have statistically been more efficient than the Lions. When I watch theses two teams though the Lions look a lot better to me. It may be because I have been high on the Lions since preseason and felt the Cowboys would be mediocre going into the season. The Lions first two games the did not look great at all but that all changed in week 3 in their win against the New England Patriots. Since the last touchdown they gave up to the 49ers their defense has looked great. The Cowboys are going to try to run the ball in this game and keep the Lions offense off the field. They will have to do that in order to have any chance at covering this number. I don’t see that happening at all. I don’t think the Cowboys defense will be able to stop Detroit’s high powered offense and I don’t think the Cowboys offense will be able to keep up. This will be a tough game for the Cowboys to win especially by more than 9 points. The Lions are a great teaser leg and can probably be used in a number of different ways
Houston Texans +7.5 (+1.5)
The Texans are 0-3 and have not looked particularly great in any of their matchups. In each of their games they fell behind early and fought back late to lose by one score or less. Andrew Luck has been throwing a lot and his arm appears to be getting fatigued which could mean trouble for their passing game. The Colts do not have a great running offense and the Texans defense can stop the run very well. If the Colts are going to win this game by more than one score they will have to do it by moving the ball through the air and I am not sure they will be able to do so. They are certainly not going to beat the Texans running the ball and if they do it won’t be by much. I think the Texans probably get their first win here. They have not lost by more than 7 points and I can’t see that happening here either.
NY Jets +13.5 (+7.5)
The Jets are coming off a loss to the Browns in a prime time spot that is fresh in public’s mind. They are 0-2 since their big win in Detroit to start the season. They are going into Jacksonville to play a Jaguars team that has high expectations for this year which is why the spread is so high. Last week the Jaguars lost to the Titans 9-6 in a game where they had trouble moving the ball. That may continue this week against a Jets team that is ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency. The Jets played two games in a row on a short week and looked extremely fatigued nearing the end of their game last week. They showed on week 1 that when they have extra time to prepare they played very well. They come into this week with extra time to prepare so I think this game will be closer than bookmakers are expecting. The Jets beat the Jaguars last year and although I’m not sure they can do that again here I think the Jets defense can keep this game close. One thing to monitor will be Calais Campbell’s injury. He is a big part of the Jaguars defense and if he isn’t playing this line may move down.
Cleveland Browns +9 (+3)
The Browns coming off their first win in their last 20 games find themselves as underdogs traveling to Oakland to play a struggling Raiders team. This line is based all on public perception that the Raiders have to finally get a win here after being so close their last two games. They went into the fourth quarter of each of their last two games with a lead before falling apart and losing both. People are also probably also not sold on the Browns after only winning one game. I have been saying since the beginning of the year that they have a talented defense. Baker Mayfield brings a new dimension to the offense and they moved the ball much better with him in the game. The Raiders are pretty close to a full blown dumpster fire in my opinion. Their defense does not look like it can stop anyone. The Browns defense has looked great so far and the Raiders defense is nearly non existent. I think the Browns keep it close and probably win outright. I don’t see a scenario where they lose by double digits.
KC Chiefs +1 (-5)
This is a game where I can definitely see the Chiefs winning outright. The Broncos have not looked impressive at all thus far and haven’t covered the number in any of their games. The Chiefs on the other hand are 3-0 straight up and against the spread. Their offense is ranked number 1 in efficiency and has looked nearly unstoppable. On the other side their defense is ranked last and has not stopped anyone. Luckily for them they won’t have much of a challenge against the Broncos offense. The Broncos signed Case Keenum to be their answer at quarterback and so far he has looked just as good as the rotating cast of characters that have had the past two seasons. The Broncos are ranked 15th in offensive efficiency, 16th in defensive efficiency and 14th in special teams. They look mediocre and their numbers say the same. I don’t see any scenario where the Chiefs lose this game. The Broncos may end up keeping it close but I don’t think they can win so I like the Chiefs as a teaser.