This is a tough week to pick games against the spread. The lines are pretty spot on. This week I may do more teasers than anything. Other than my lock I do not feel too confident in the rest of the games.
Green Bay Packers -3 @ Washington Redskins
This line feels like such a trap. The Packers are a major public team. They opened the season with a remarkable comeback on prime time and then had a high scoring tie last week in a game they probably should have won. On the other hand we have the Redskins who have probably played in the two slowest most boring games this season. I don’t think most of the general public has actually paid any attention to the Redskins. They have played the two most boring games of the year. On the surface they only beat the Cardinals and then lost to the Colts 21-9. They were able to move the ball pretty well in both games. Their defense also was able to two force turnovers in both games. You also have to factor in the fatigue factor with the Packers playing for an extra quarter last week in a very emotional game. With Aaron Rodgers not at 100% the infamous Redskins turf may not be the best place for him. I’m not falling in the trap I’m taking the Redskins +3.
NY Giants @ Houston Texans -6
This line feels heavily inflated by public perception. The Giants just played on Sunday night and looked terrible against the Cowboys. Their offensive line had major issues. They spent the week in Texas getting ready to play the Texans. That makes a huge difference. I see the Giants using this trip to better their focus together as a football team. The Texans have a talented defense but so far we have seen that they are not as good as they have been in the past. Their offense has not played very well, other than in a garbage time effort when the Patriots had already taken a substantial lead. The Giants will put together a much better offensive effort in this game. I know the Giants have not looked good but I see the Giants being able to match points with the Texans in this game. This is the Texans home opener but I see the Giants with a much better effort than they have shown previously, covering the spread if not winning outright.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons -3
The Falcons find themselves favored again after they hung on to the win and cover last week. The Saints beat the Browns last week in an unconvincing fashion. This line is trending downward and will probably be less than 3 before kickoff. I think that trend is warranted. The Falcons defense is dealing with major injuries and does not match up well with the Saints offense. Christian McCaffrey just caught 14 passes for 102 yards against the Falcons defense. I see Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees both having a big game here. The Browns defense is better than they get credit for and the Saints offense has been pretty good too. In the midst of Zane Gonzalez’ missed field goals and extra points people forget the Saints drove down the field to win that game. I see the Saints getting the outright win this week. I don’t think the Falcons will be able to keep up with them.
Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins -3
This game was my lock of the week.