I’ve been doing well with these. This week seems tougher so lets hope it continues
Philadelphia Eagles -0.5 (-6.5)
This is an easy pick because I definitely see the Eagles win this game. Other than giving up the two big touchdowns on defense, they did not play that bad. They lost Mike Wallace which really only left them with Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz to catch passes. The humidity in Tampa Bay definitely effected the team as well which will not be a problem in Philadelphia. With home field, I think the defense steps up in this game and forces some turnovers. As of today Anthony Costanzo and TY Hilton have not practiced for the Colts yet this week. That is Andrew Luck’s favorite target and blindside protecter so that will be a huge loss if they cannot go. Either way I see the Eagles winning this game outright which makes me like them as a teaser leg here.
KC Chiefs -1 (-7)
This will be a tough spot for the 49ers traveling east to play the early game in Kansas City. This is also the Chiefs home opener in Arrowhead Stadium, which already has a reputation for being the loudest stadium in the league. That sets up a very difficult situation for 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. This game is expected to be a shootout with the over under set at 57. Neither team has a very good defense but overall I give a slight edge to the Chiefs in this game. I still do not trust Jimmy Garoppolo. He threw a late interception last week that would have changed the game only to be bailed out by a defensive holding call. I do not think he will fare well in Arrowhead Stadium. I am not sure if the Chiefs can cover the full 7, but I for sure see them winning. The first two teams I wrote about make perfect teaser legs.
Miami Dolphins +3 (-3)
I see this game being a blowout. After the heartbreaking way the Raiders lost on the road last week, they find themselves traveling about as far as possible to Miami to play in the early game. Miami has looked pretty good in the first two weeks, and have not had to deal with the same amount of travel as the Raiders. The Dolphins only have one game this year that is not the early Sunday game so that should help them be in a better rhythm than the visiting Raiders. Also when Adam Gase watches film from last week he will see how when the Broncos came out in the second half and ran a high tempo offense, the Raiders defense wore down quickly and the Broncos were able to come back. Adam Gase traditionally likes to run an up-tempo offense so I think he will start the game with it. I see the Raiders wearing down early in the Miami humidity and the Dolphins winning a blowout.
LA Chargers +13 (+7)
The Rams have certainly come out of the gates hot. They beat the Raiders by 20 points on the inaugural Monday night game and then beat the Cardinals last week 34-0. So far they have not faced any great competition. That will change this week. The Chargers have a talented roster top to bottom and will be much better equipped to move the ball on against a stout Rams defense. Also their defense should do much better in stopping the run than any defense the Rams have faced, which will force Jared Goff to throw the ball. If the Chargers can get off to a quick start and get an early lead I think this is a game they can win. The Rams offense has been primarily run through Todd Gurley which has made it so Jared Goff has not been in any high pressure situations where he needs to throw the ball. I think back to last year’s playoff game where the Falcons were able to get an early lead and force the Rams into throwing situations. If the Chargers can score early and often in this game I am not sure the Rams offense can keep up if they have to rely on Jared Goff. When the Rams played the Raiders they let Jared Cook catch 9 balls for 180 yards. That concerns me because the Chargers have a bunch of weapons they can use to spread out the Rams offense to find someone open. The Chargers rarely lose by double digits and are almost always in games until the end. This will be a tough game for the Rams to win, nevermind win by 13.
Chicago Bears -0.5 (-6.5)
This one is pretty easy to explain. The Cardinals look to be one of the two worst teams in the league along with the Bills. Through two games the Cardinals have yet to score a TD and have only totaled 350 yards on the year. Their passing game has not looked good and they have not been able to keep drives going only converting 25% of 3rd downs so far. The Bears defense on the other hand has looked dominant so far this season. Part of me believes the Cardinals offense will be making a concerted effort to make something happen in this game. The Bears are being a little bit overpriced after two prime time games as well. Their offense has not looked special so far. With the way their defense has played the most important thing for Mitch Trubisky will be is to not turn the ball over. The Cardinals defense still has talented players and they may be able to force Trubisky into some mistakes as he plays his first road game of the year. I still think the Bears will win but I am not sure they can cover the full spread, so I like them better as a teaser leg.
Detroit Lions +13 (+7)
The major headlines coming into this game are the Patriots coming off a loss and trading for new WR Josh Gordon. The Lions come into this game 0-2 after being embarrassed on the opening Monday night, they were victims of bad discipline in their last game. The Lions ended the game with 10 penalties for 105 yards. One penalty came on a punt return for a TD but there was none bigger than a defensive holding call on a play that would have been an interception deep in 49ers territory. The Lions also once again fell victim to a long run play allowing Matt Breida to score a 66 yard rushing TD. They found themselves down 17 late and still fought to the end and only lost by 3. I think the Lions will come into this game motivated and focused. The players are going to want to win this on for their coach Matt Patricia as he is the former defensive coordinator for the Patriots. The Lions got a pretty good practice last week against Jimmy Garoppolo. The Lions have a defensive system that matches up well against them. They will play man to man coverage and try to mess up the timing of their pass plays. One thing to pay attention to will be the Lions injuries. Darius Slay is in concussion protocol and Ezekiel Ansah was inactive last week but is practicing limited this week. Jamal Agnew and TJ Lang were also limited participants. If all of these players are able to go this week, which I believe they will be I think the Lions win outright at home. I think Josh Gordon is extremely talented but he won’t be ready to go in the Patriots offense after only one week. The Patriots will fix their problems at WR by the end of the season once Gordon is acclimated and once Julian Edelman returns from suspension. The Patriots will most likely continue to improve in all areas as the season goes on but I see this being a let down week for them. They may win but I can’t see them winning big on the road in prime time. This game is the Lions Super Bowl. The Patriots are essentially playing two Super Bowls in a row with how motivated the Jaguars were and how motivated the Lions will be. I honestly see the Patriots losing this week, the Dolphins winning big and then the Patriots only being 3 point favorites at home to the Dolphins next week. I will hammer that line, but for now I like the Lions as a teaser leg.