NFL Week 3 Betting Preview

With the Bears first half win that brings my season total to 13-9-1.

 

Jets @ Browns -3

The Browns find themselves favorites for the first time this year. People are expecting this to be the week the Browns finally win a game. Their roster is certainly improved from last year’s and they were able to almost win against the Saints. I will probably be on the Browns and Browns first half in this game. I can see them starting hot at home. With less time to prepare we may see the Sam Darnold we expected to see in week 1 on the road in prime time in this game. This is also a game the Browns should start hot as Hue Jackson is now coaching for his job.

 

Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings -17

The Bills did not look good again last week and are the largest underdog of the season so far. The Bills look like the worst team in the league. Their offense can’t stay on the field and their defense can’t get off the field. After seeing how teams are playing the Bills I think it may be good to take these large spreads early in this season. The Bills look completely inept. They may be a team to go on later if they can get anything positive going.

 

GB Packers -3 @ Washington

Washington looked terrible at home against the Colts and will be looking to bounce back. I’m not sure they can do it against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a very high level even on only one leg. The Packers should have won the last game in regulation but had to settle for a tie instead. I think the Packers can win big here.

 

Broncos @ Ravens -5

This line is so high because of the Ravens defense at home. They are considerably better there and after seeing Case Keenum struggle with Oakland I don’t think I can trust Denver’s offense. The Broncos were able to squeeze out a win last week but that was more due to Oakland getting fatigued at the end of the game. It will be tough for me to back the Ravens because of how bad Joe Flacco and the secondary looked. I will probably stay off this one entirely.

 

Colts @ Eagles -6

The Eagles are the heavy favorite after losing on the road. Early weather reports are showing showers for that game. It won’t be so hot though which should play to their advantage. Carson Wentz may end up being cleared for contact but he will not be 100%, so they may still be better off with Foles. The Eagles defense will be much better at home. I am not sure with all of their injuries if they can cover that spread, they may be better as a teaser leg.

 

49ers @ Chiefs -6.5

People are very high on the Chiefs after their big win in Pittsburgh yesterday. Neither of these teams have great defenses and the total is already at 55.5. The Chiefs have a huge home field advantage and now their offense has looked phenomenal with Patrick Mahomes at QB. Andy Reid’s Chiefs looked great last year to start the season and are starting the season great this year as well. Jimmy Garoppolo did not impress me against Detroit. They were helped out by a lot of defensive penalties including one late that turned an interception into a first down. It’s also their home opener in the loudest stadium in the league. I definitely think the Chiefs win this game. They are another great teaser leg.

 

NO Saints @ Atlanta Falcons -3

The Falcons covered a six point spread against the Panthers and are now 3 point favorites against the Saints. The Saints struggled against the Browns but I don’t think that will be the case with Atlanta. The Browns actually have a good defense, something the Falcons don’t and the Saints will be ready for this game. I can see the Saints winning this game outright as underdogs. I think the Falcons are a little bit overrated coming off a good game.

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers -3

This spread is interesting to me as the Panthers are favored even after the Bengals looked great and the Panthers did not. The bookmakers may be making the adjustment because the Panthers are a more talented team than the Ravens are. The Bengals have extra time to prepare but are dealing with an injury to Joe Mixon which is a loss for their offense. I don’t see them getting off to a quick start here on the road like they did last week. I feel like vegas is making the Bengals underdogs after such a strong performance on a prime time game to have people buy on the Bengals which makes me want to take the Panthers. This is one I will keep my eye on towards kickoff. If it trends downwards I will be on the Panthers.

 

Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins -3

The Raiders find themselves underdogs again on the road this time in Miami. The Dolphins are coming off a win on the road against the Jets where they got off to a quick start and cruised to an easy win. I think this is going to be a tough game for Oakland going east and playing in the early game. I think Adam Gase is a much better coach than Jon Gruden. I think he will look at what the Broncos did offensively in the second half of the Raiders last game where they played with tempo and were able to wear down the defense easily. I think the Dolphins are going to get off to a quick start and roll in this game. I will probably be on the Dolphins first half and game.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Currently no line out for this one. They are probably waiting for the diagnosis on Marcus Mariota. I do not think Mariota will play and even if he does I would still be on the Jaguars at home. They played extremely well against the Patriots and their good play should continue against the Titans. I am not sold on them after only barely beating the Texans. Deshaun Watson made a terrible play at the end of the game when the Texans had a chance to tie by just running around and wasting the final 17 seconds. When this line comes out I will probably be on the Jaguars both against the spread and as a teaser leg.

 

LA Chargers @ LA Rams -7

The battle for LA comes here in week 3. Both these teams come off beating maybe the two worst teams in the league very convincingly. I am not sold on the Rams after seeing them beat two mediocre teams. Right now I like the Chargers. Phillip Rivers has played much better than Jared Goff. The Rams offense has been set up more by their running game. The Rams are a very public team and I think this is a good situation to bet against them. The Chargers have a lot of offensive weapons and if they can give Phillip Rivers time they will be tough to stop. Jared Goff threw for a lot of yards but it looks to be more part of the system. If the Chargers can get an early lead it will be interesting to see if Jared Goff can bring the team back. I do not believe so and that is why I am taking the Chargers.

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks

There is no spread as of the time I write this but this looks like an ugly game. I already like the first half under. I am not sure the Seahawks will be able to beat the Cowboys even with their great home field advantage. As I write this Russell Wilson has been sacked 5 times and hit 5 more and pressured on almost every drop back. The Seahawks defense is much better with Earl Thomas on the field and he is getting back into game shape and starting to play more snaps. On the other hand Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense looked much better last night than the Bears offense does tonight. I think the Cowboys will be a good pick and teaser leg here.

 

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals

This line is also pending the final of tonights game. The Cardinals offense has had a lot of trouble moving the ball the first two games and that may continue here against the Bears. It is really tough to be on Arizona going against another good defense after they were shutout last week. The Bears should be able to get off to a hot start again this game and cruise to a victory. This is another game the first half under may be in play. Cardinals games are currently 2-0 in first half unders.

 

New England Patriots -7 @ Detroit Lions

This is an obvious spot where the public will be heavily on the Patriots. The idea will be that they are coming off of a loss, and they just added Josh Gordon so their wide receiver issues will be immediately fixed. I am not sure this will be the case. This is a game that will mean a lot to the Lions and head coach Matt Patricia. This is a game where it will be important to pay attention to injuries. I think the Lions can beat the Patriots in a game where they will be playing a team that is playing their personal Super Bowl for the second week in a row. The Patriots defense had trouble stopping the Jaguars and the Lions have a good trio of receivers as well. If anyone is going to know how to beat Bill Belichick it will be Matt Patricia. If Ezekiel Ansah and Darius Slay play in this game I think the Lions win outright. They will need to make fewer mistakes and penalties but I think their defense is built to do well against the Patriots. It is still early in the Patriots season. This is the time of season when they do not play their best football. Without Edelman it is tough for them to move the ball down the field. I see that being an issue this week as well. I think the Lions defensive stars will be healthy and playing. This is a game where they will want to win for their coach and I think they will do so.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers

This line opened at -3 and has come down to -1.5. This game feels like a do or die game for the Steelers. They have not looked good and are coming into Tampa Bay to play a Bucs team that is 2-0 and has an offense that is rolling. The dysfunction in the Steelers locker room is certainly growing as the team struggles. Evidenced by Antonio Brown tweeting about being traded after the game. I’m not sure I can trust the Bucs offense to have more 1 play 75 yard drives. Their offenses ability to score quickly and has allowed the Buccaneers to be in control of the game from the start. If the Steelers can stop that from happening and take control early they could get an easy victory. I think this could finally be the end of Fitz-magic.

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