Looking At Week 1 Late Games

Chiefs @ Chargers -3(-130)

The Chargers come into this season favored against the Chiefs after losing to them twice last year. The price on them has risen to -130 but line has not moved from -3. The Chiefs come into this season with questions around their offense with unproven QB Patrick Mahomes. They also traded their best CB Marcus Peters to the Rams in the offseason. The Chargers were very good last year and finished last year strong barely missing the playoffs. They come into this year with most of their team still intact for this year. The Chargers will be without DE Joey Bosa for this game which is a big loss for a defense already without the services of CB Jason Verrett (Out for season) and DL Corey Liuget (Suspended). Although Patrick Mahomes is unproven, he is surrounded by weapons with RB Kareem Hunt, TE Travis Kelce and WRs Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. The Chargers offense is stacked as well but I see both of these teams getting off to a slow start. The game will be played in Los Angeles and it will be hot and humid. The weather conditions combined with these two teams being pretty familiar with each other make me think it will start slow. I will be taking the first half under 24. As for the game spread I can make a case to myself for both teams. I can see the Chiefs offense taking advantage of a short handed Chargers defense, and I can also see them struggling in their first game together. Andy Reid is very good at preparing for games with extra time and he has had all off season to prepare for this one. The Chiefs got off to a great start last year and I believe they will at least be able to keep this game close so I am taking the Chiefs +3.

 

Cowboys @ Panthers -3

This looks like a game where the oddsmakers do not know which way this game is going and have made the Panthers 3 point favorites due to their home field advantage. Both teams had disappointing off-seasons and neither have very high expectations for the year. This is a game that will be dictated by which team will be able to get their running game going first. Both teams come in with injuries to their starting offensive linemen so it will not be easy for Ezekiel Elliott or Christian McCaffrey to get anything going. I like the Panthers in this game though. Cam Newton always adds an extra rushing threat and his ability to run the ball will help with their depleted offensive line. Also the Panthers defense has a very talented front 7 and should be able to contain the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys will struggle on both sides of the ball. I see the Panthers covering the spread and winning by more than 3.

 

Redskins @ Cardinals -2

This line started even but has moved to -2 as significant money has come in on the Cardinals. The Cardinals had a pretty good team last year. They have a pretty good defense and a strong home field advantage. Their issues were with their inconsistent QB play and the injury to their star RB David Johnson. They come back this year with David Johnson healthy and starting new QB Sam Bradford. Sam Bradford was injured early last year, but never really saw the field once Case Keenum took over. He is essentially coming off a season of rest. I think this will be huge for the Cardinals this season and this game as this significant rest should do well to keep Bradford healthy. In his last full season he broke the record for highest completion percentage of all time. I think this is a game where the Cardinals will be able to get their offense going behind David Johnson. The Redskins do not have many weapons on offense and the Cardinals defense should be able to contain them. I see both teams getting off to slow starts also. To summarize I will be taking the Cardinals -2 and the first half under 22.5.

 

Seahawks @ Broncos

I explained this game at length in this blog. To quickly summarize my thoughts, I do not believe the Seahawks have the depth to win in Mile High Stadium this early in the year. The Broncos should be better conditioned to play this game in the high altitude in Denver. I am taking the Broncos -3.

 

The Picks:

Chiefs +3 (+110)

Panthers -3 (-110)

Cardinals -2 (-105)

Broncos -1 (-130)

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