The Patriots come into this season as obvious odds-on favorites to win the AFC east. They are also odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl, so betting them at -800 to win the AFC East almost still seems like a steal. It is not something I would do personally because of the low rate of return, however if you are looking to make a sizable safe bet, this one is pretty much a lock.
The Patriots have won the division in 14 of the previous 16 years, including the last 8 years in a row. They come back this year once again led by head coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. They are both arguably the best ever at what they do, and have showed no signs of slowing regression even with Tom Brady still playing at 41 years old. They are consistently the best coached team. They do not make many mistakes, and are not highly penalized. They have talented players all over their roster, and they are poised once again for a Super Bowl run.
Looking at the rest of the AFC east there is not much more talent on the rest of the rosters. The Bills, who made the playoffs last year decided to ditch QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman and rookie draft pick Josh Allen. The coaching staff started Peterman in one game last year. In that game he threw 5 interceptions and was replaced by former starter Tyrod Taylor. They also may be missing LeSean McCoy who is having some off the field issues and may end up being suspended. The Bills had a good turnover ratio last year, and that will be hard to replicate. Overall this team looks to have taken a step back and will not be competitive.
The Dolphins are a team that seemingly always has hype regarding their off-season moves. They looked good at points last year, when they were able to get their running game going. Their offense has Ryan Tannehill returning this year, but the Dolphins do not have many weapons surrounding him. They signed WR Danny Amendola in the offseason, but they offense will be reliant on the success of Kenyan Drake. The Dolphins have the potential to run the ball well and play competitive football, and they also have a great home field advantage with the humidity in Miami. I do not see them making the playoffs or making a run at the division though.
The Jets come into this season with low expectations. They had low expectations last year as well and somewhat did better than expected. The Jets are a competitive young team and they had an offense that could score quickly. I think the Jets come into this year a little underrated and should be slightly improved from last year. They have decent weapons surrounding rookie QB Sam Darnold. Their offense will most likely be centered around running the ball and controlling the clock. The Jets have a talented defense that should keep them in games. This is a team that I think will surprise people. Their win total is set at 6. I see value in the over because looking at their schedule, 6 wins certainly seems attainable. Getting the 7th win to get the bet to the window would be difficult but I see this as at worst a push.
Patriots WIN AFC East -800 (I know it is expensive but it is the surest bet you will make)
Jets OVER 6 wins -105