We got our first dose of football with the hall of fame game and it feels great to have football back. Fall is right around the corner and soon it will be time for meaningful football games we can bet on. I don’t like to bet on pre-season but rather use that time to see if I can find any information to use for the regular season. I have not had a chance to analyze the first game other than looking at the box score but I will find time to watch the replay.
I have made some changes to the positions of my NFL futures wagers. I have decided to raise my position on Minnesota under 10 wins to 21%, raise my position on Falcons under 9.5 wins to 2%, and reduce my position on the Seahawks under 8 wins to 10%. There are a few reasons I decided to make these changes. One is that the market has been very bullish on the Seahawks under wins, as their expectations publicly are much lower. There are many more people in the national media repeating the same sentiments that they do not think they will do well, and the price has shown that as I have seen as high as -165 in some shops. Also because if everyone is saying a team is terrible, they are not usually as terrible as people say they are. The media is paid to make stories not to report news and saying a team that has enjoyed recent success will be bad is a much more compelling story than to bring up a more obvious team that has not enjoyed the same success a team like the Seahawks has had. Also when it comes down to it, the Vikings and Falcons have a higher probability to not be able to reach their win totals, due to the fact that they are higher. Meaning if you were to give every team a 50% chance to win every game it would be more difficult to win 10 games than 8. Although I do not think the Seahawks will get to 8 wins, the better position is to go with the Vikings and Falcons under just due to the lower probability of reaching 10 wins rather than 8.
I have locked in the Vikings under 10 wins at -105 and the Seahawks under 8 wins at -125. The yellow in the chart is to show that the bet is pending. This will be updated as the season goes along.