NFC South Win Totals and Division

This is a strong division but still has a lot of value. The Saints +150 are favored after a strong season last year where they won the division, and their team also had the offensive and defensive rookie of the year with Alvin Kamara and Marcus Latimore. They should come in to this year still very strong. However I also think the Panthers +275 are also a very strong team. Neither of these teams have holes and it will be a toss-up to see who wins the division. The Panthers are a very efficient team that runs the ball well and controls the line of scrimmage. They are not very flashy and combined with that they are in a smaller media market, they do not get a lot of attention on the national media scale. The Saints however have a reputation of being a high scoring team, led by Drew Brees. Their success combined with their public perception make them clear favorites, but Carolina will be right there with them. It is tough to deny the value in either of the choices. The best bet may to put a little bit on both and guarantee yourself some kind of profit. The Buccaneers are not a good team and the Falcons will continue to regress. This division will certainly come down to either the Panthers or Saints.

 

Win totals:

 

Carolina Panthers over 8.5, -120

The Panthers are have been a fixture near the top of the NFC South for four of the last five years. The one year they struggled was the year after losing the Super Bowl. This team is consistent because of their running game. Although Cam Newton is not known for his accuracy, the threat of him running opens different options up for their offense. With Norv Turner at offensive coordinator this year, expect to see Cam Newton complete a higher percentage of his passes. Also the addition of CJ Anderson in the backfield will be great to compliment Christian McCaffrey. They also have had great offensive and defensive lines in that time period. Their defense has been strong at all three levels will All-Pro caliber talent throughout. The biggest question is in their secondary. This team should definitely get at least nine wins and compete with the Saints to win the division.

 

Atlanta Falcons Under 9 +110

 

This is a team I see ready to fall off this year. Last year they had a good season and made the playoffs but it still seemed like a huge disappointment after losing the Super Bowl in the year prior. Julio Jones is still very good but the offense definitely seemed like it took a big step back last year. They were no longer dominating games and did not have a sense of urgency. I see them struggling this year and getting no more than 9 wins.

 

The Picks:

 

9.4% Saints win division

7.6% Panthers win division

5% Panthers over 8.5 wins

1% Falcons under 9.5 wins

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