AFC West Win Totals and Division

This is another weak division with a lot of value. The LA Chargers +135 looks like it is too easy. They are a talented team poised to make jump record-wise and win the division. They played in a lot of close games last year that could have gone either way. There is also some value in taking the Chiefs +250. Patrick Mahomes is an unproven quarterback getting his first chance in the NFL but he has  Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt surrounding him so expectations from the team are high. The Chiefs also went 2-0 against the Chargers last year and beat both Super Bowl participants the Patriots and Eagles in weeks 1 and 2. Despite that I still think this Division belongs to the Chargers this year. They have had some bad luck the past few years, and lost a lot of close games. I think that will turn around for them this year.

 

Win Totals:

 

LA Chargers over 9.5, +100

The Chargers come into this season the clearcut favorite in the AFC West. Last year was their first year in LA after moving from San Diego and they finished the season off strong and just missed making the playoffs. Their first two games featured losses in which they missed potential game winning field goals at the end of the game, and didn’t lose by a large score other than one game late at Kansas City. I see LA having a better season this year and easily winning their weak division. They should get to 10 wins in the process.

 

Oakland Raiders Under 8, +110

People are looking at the Raiders as a team that underperformed last year. When I look at the Raiders I see a team that did exactly as well as they should have. They were in my opinion overrated going into last season after over-achieving the year before. Their defense is not very good and they did little to change that. In fact their best player is holding out during training camp which does not bode well for the team going into the season. There is also questions in my mind of Jon Gruden’s qualifications to still be a head coach. The game has changed a lot since he was a coach and I am not convinced he is as great as he is being made out to be. This is a team that is bet heavily by the public of which there are many Raiders fans, who are optimistic because of both Jon Gruden and last year’s high expectations. That  is why the total is so high and the price is where it is. I don’t think they will get more than 6 wins.

 

The picks:

 

2% Chargers over 9.5 wins

7% Raiders under 8 wins

5% Chargers win division

2% Chiefs win division

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