AFC South Win Totals and Division

This is a division where things are interesting because every team has a bit of value in their price. Jacksonville +175 is the favorite after their defensive dominance last year in winning the division and getting to the AFC Championship game. After years of being in the bottom of the division they have acquired a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. This is aided with their coaching system with Doug Marrone and Tom Coughlin overseeing everything. With that being said, I think there is more value in betting Tennessee +300. They were 9-7 last year, and beat the Jaguars in both games they played against them. They also have upgraded their roster significantly with their free agent signings, and coaching changes. Signing Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler, along with a new coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel will improve the team significantly. Offensive coordinator Matt Lafleur was with the LA Rams last year where their offense significantly improved from the year before, and he should help the Titans do the same. Also they got new jerseys that look good. The new look just gives you that new look energy and that will sometimes make a team’s bond stronger and thus make them play better on the field.

 

Win Totals:

 

Houston Texans under 8.5, +140

This one is more of a value play that I would not go big on, also with a chance to hedge against your losses. It’s hard to find 8 games on their schedule they will lose by looking at it but it will come down to the last week or two. I don’t think Deshaun Watson will be as great as he was in a small sample size last year. He is coming off an ACL injury and now has one partial season of game tape on him. I would expect somewhat of a sophomore slump. Also they are probably the third best team in their division behind Jacksonville and Tennessee. I don’t see them being in contention for the division which makes me believe they will have trouble winning more than 8 games.

 

Tennessee Titans Over 8, -110

Tennessee went 9-7 last year with an offensive system that seemed to be prehistoric. Mike Mularkey was more interested in playing smash-mouth, run the ball football. Which can work, however the play calling became very predictable. I think the coaching changes they have made this year will make this team better on both sides of the ball. Along with that they brought in Dion Lewis to the backfield that already boasts Derrick Henry. On paper that is as good as a running back duo you can have, with Henry being the bruising lead back and Lewis being the shifty spell back. Also they added Malcolm Butler to an already stout defense. Butler has played his entire career with a chip on his shoulder, and he still believes he has something to prove after being benched in last year’s Super Bowl. I see the Titans winning their division and competing with Jacksonville in the process.

 

The picks:

 

1% Texans Under 8.5 Wins

1% Titans over 8 wins

1% Titans wins division

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