AFC North Win Totals and Division

This is a tough decision to pick. On one hand the division has been dominated recently by the Steelers -250 however there is not much value with that choice. The Steelers are poised for a repeat on paper, but the games as we know are not played on paper. I see a lot of value with Baltimore +450. They had a good defense last year, their offense however settled for a lot of field goals or failed to get downfield at all. They are hoping the additions made to their wide receiving core will help improve their offense. They are also switching to a more mobile type of system after drafting Lamar Jackson. That will be an interesting QB competition as Joe Flacco will be fighting to keep his starting job. I can see the Ravens having a good season regardless of their quarterback because of their strong defense. I think +450 is great value as they should be in the hunt all year and shouldn’t finish any lower than second place.

 

Win Totals:

 

Cincinnati Bengals Under 6.5 +105

This is a team that has been on the decline and should see their full potential of being near the bottom of the standings this year. LAst year they went 7-9 with two of those wins coming to the 0-16 browns. I can not see things being better for them this year. If anything they split their series with the Browns and end up 6-10. That is what I see as a best case scenario for this team. They are devoid of talent other than AJ Green and they lack on the coaching end as well. I see this year maybe being the final breaking point to fire Marvin Lewis.

 

Baltimore Ravens over 8, -145

This is a team that has two of the four pillars on the defensive side of the ball with Terrell Suggs and Jimmy Smith. The Ravens are always known for their defense, and last years number 3 ranking reinforces that. Their offense would stall and settle for field goals a lot and also had a lot of turnovers. Despite their offensive woes they still got 9 wins last year. I see them doing similarly, no matter who they end up going with at quarterback, and I see them having a shot at winning the AFC North with the Steelers. They always do and I believe this is the year the Steelers lack of discipline could catch up to them. At the very least The Ravens should win 8 games to get the push.

 

The picks:

 

1% Ravens over 8 wins

1% Ravens win division

1% Bengals under 6.5 wins

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